Republicans lost more than just a midterm election on Tuesday night. They lost an essential part of the coalition that put them in power. And if they respond by blaming fraud, bad luck, or the usual midterm headwinds, you may as well start planning for another defeat in 2028.
This election is not a story about swing voters suddenly falling in love with Democrats. It’s about the Trump coalition hemorrhaging support from its base, and that is a much bigger problem. It is also one the Republican establishment seems uniquely incapable of confronting.
Presidents lose midterms. That is nothing new. What is new is losing voters from your base on an unprecedented scale.
In 2024, Donald Trump won with a coalition that included Gen X by 11
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