Will America keep on trucking? Understanding the new economics of oil shocks

May brought news that trucking prices are hauling upward, and fast. Increased hauling costs often mean a noticeable uptick in price tags for the many goods those trucks deliver. This was a bad omen for Republicans — rising prices have historically complicated things for the party in power during midterm elections.

For instance, 2022 was a year of significant inflation in hauling and other sectors of the economy. It was also pretty bad for Democrats, who controlled Congress and the White House at the time. Then-President Joe Biden’s party lost nine seats and control of the House that year — not a political tidal wave as many pundits predicted, but a defeat nonetheless.

A bit under six months out from the 2026 elections, trucking prices suggest a troubling economic picture for Republicans. The Logistics Managers’ Index for April was at the root of many bearish stories. The index showed several indicators that