Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump could nominate the next chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as soon as this week. The term of the current chairman, Jerome Powell, ends in May.
Just two weeks ago, financial markets and prediction markets believed Trump would choose either Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Now, however, one name has surged from relative obscurity to front-runner status: Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income. In that role, Rieder manages more than $2.4 trillion in fixed-income assets.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket now place the odds that Trump will select Rieder at just over 50%. A recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper finds that prediction markets often provide accurate, real-time forecasts of
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