As a ceasefire with Iran moves into its second extension, what might come next for Iran, the United States, and the region?
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has opened a power vacuum at the center of the Islamic Republic. His son Mojtaba has been described as a successor, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appears to hold the decisive power. Khamenei held 36 years of factional balance within a single person, and whether Mojtaba is alive, dead, or capable of the same remains very much an open question. That uncertainty makes the regime more vulnerable.
The Guards control roughly half the economy and suppress dissent through aggressive internal security forces. Until now, a clear hierarchy kept these internal power structures broadly unified. Among these ranks the lines blur between fanatics, opportunists, and corrupt elites. The absence of a power vertical makes associated divisions harder to bottle up.
Another question? Whether
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