Vitalik Buterin Sees a 60% Chance Cryptography’s Biggest Tools Get Far Cheaper

By Isaac • September 7, 2026 7:40 am •

Vitalik Buterin is putting unusually specific odds on a future that could make some of cryptography’s most powerful tools dramatically cheaper to use.

The Ethereum co-founder says he sees a 60% chance that SNARKs, fully homomorphic encryption and indistinguishability obfuscation can eventually run with less than 10 times the cost of ordinary computation.

The post sets no product launch or Ethereum roadmap date. Buterin called the forecast optimistic and “very-non-consensus.”

It is still a striking benchmark from someone who has spent years pushing zero-knowledge proofs and programmable cryptography toward practical use.

According to CryptoSlate, Buterin measures overhead through total energy consumption and amortized computing expense. That definition accounts for the hardware and power needed to perform