President Donald Trump‘s campaign promise to boost domestic oil and gas production and “drill, baby, drill” has run into significant obstacles in the form of higher supply chain costs and volatile oil markets, seeding doubt that the industry could meet that call.
True, crude oil production hit records in 2025, and it is agreed that Trump is a greater friend to the oil and gas industry than his predecessor, former President Joe Biden. And Trump has kept his promise to lift burdensome environmental regulations imposed by the Biden administration by pulling back regulations and policies limiting liquefied natural gas exports, blocking drilling on federal land, and more.
But production has not quite responded as hoped, at least not yet. The administration’s energy analysis arm is now predicting that production will fall in 2026. And nor has the industry prospered: Several oil majors saw their profits decline in the last year.
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