JPMorgan Now Models Bitcoin Beating Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade

By Isaac • October 20, 2026 7:29 am •

JPMorgan has spent years treating Bitcoin as an awkward outsider. Now the bank is putting the asset into the same long-term forecasting machinery it uses to compare stocks, bonds and gold.

For the first time, JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. Its base case calls for a 10% annualized return over the next decade, ahead of the firm’s estimates for major U.S. stock indexes and gold.

That does not mean JPMorgan suddenly considers Bitcoin a safe or standard portfolio holding. The forecast comes with unusually blunt cautions about volatility, unstable correlations and the difficulty of modeling an asset that does not produce conventional cash flow.

CoinDesk detailed JPMorgan’s first formal