By Isaac • July 4, 2026 10:08 am •
Europe’s markets regulator just told prediction-market operators something they may not want to hear. Calling a product a prediction market does not decide how the EU treats it.
On July 3, 2026, the European Securities and Markets Authority published a statement reminding firms that many event contracts can already fall under existing binary-options restrictions.
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The core point is simple. Function controls treatment, not branding.
ESMA described event contracts as products with a binary financial outcome, usually a fixed payout or no payout, based on a yes-or-no future event. If a contract works that way and qualifies as a financial instrument, existing rules already apply.
CoinDesk reported on July 4 that ESMA is putting prediction-market operators on
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