Economists have sharply upgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy under President Donald Trump, with the latest Wall Street Journal survey showing a dramatic reversal from the pessimism that dominated forecasts through much of 2025.
The January 2026 survey of 82 economic forecasters reveals recession fears have receded sharply while growth expectations have jumped, particularly for the near term. Forecasters now expect substantially stronger economic momentum heading into Trump’s second year in office than they anticipated just three months ago.
The probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 27 percent, down from a peak of 45 percent in April 2025 when many economists panicked following the Trump administration’s Liberation Day tariff policy. This is around the average chance
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