By Isaac • October 10, 2026 3:07 pm •
The federal government is trying to draw a bright line through one of crypto’s fastest-growing businesses: a prediction contract can be a regulated derivative, but a casino wager is still gambling.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued two measures Friday that are meant to work together. One would expressly bring qualifying event contracts into the federal definition of a swap.
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The other excludes casino-style products, including sportsbook wagers and casino games, from that same definition.
The result is a sharper legal boundary—but not the end of the fight over who controls prediction markets.
Two rules, opposite sides of one line
In its interim final rule announcement, the CFTC said casino-style gambling products are not derivatives, anchoring
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