Bitcoin’s 63.3% HODL Wave Looks Bullish—Until You Read What It Actually Measures

By Isaac • September 20, 2026 7:18 am •

Bitcoin’s supply is getting older on-chain. That sounds immediately bullish, and the headline number is striking: 63.3% of the supply had not moved for at least one year as of September 18.

The figure does not prove investors just bought more Bitcoin or that coins left exchanges. It also does not prove that beneficial ownership changed.

The number is useful. It is simply narrower than the bullish shorthand often attached to it.

What the 63.3% HODL wave measures

CryptoSlate reports that Bitcoin’s one-year HODL share rose from 62.32% on August 18 to 63.3% on September 18, a gain of 0.98 percentage points. Its review compares adjacent age bands and recent-movement data to separate the confirmed aging