America’s Political War Is Costing Trillions: An American Union Could Fix It

America’s long-standing political conflicts increasingly carry an economic cost that is rarely discussed. Research on economic policy uncertainty suggests that sustained political instability can readily reduce national economic output by 1–2 percent or more of GDP through reduced investment, hiring delays, and lower productivity.

In an economy the size of the United States, that represents hundreds of billions of dollars every year — roughly the economic output of an entire mid-size U.S. state.

In prior essays, I argued that America’s political division has become so deep that a peaceful separation into two sovereign nations — one broadly red and one broadly blue — is something Americans should start to discuss and consider seriously.

I also argued that fears of mass migration in an American Union are overstated. If two successor nations were able to govern themselves according to their own political preferences, each would likely move toward its own political