U.S. Recession Odds Surge in Prediction Markets on Tariff Shock. What Next for BTC?

U.S. Recession Odds Surge in Prediction Markets on Tariff Shock. What Next for BTC?


U.S. recession fears are in the air following President Donald Trump’s tariff plan, with prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi indicating heightened concerns the economy will take a hit.

On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the chance of the country slipping into recession this year topped 50% for the first time since the betting contract “US Recession in 2025” began trading early this year. The contract’s Yes shares soared to over 50 cents from 39 cents in less than 24 hours.

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