U.S. Recession Odds on Polymarket Plunge to 22% as Trade Tensions Cool

Bets on a U.S. recession in 2025 have dropped sharply, with odds on crypto prediction platform Polymarket sinking to 22% this week, the lowest level since late February.

Recession fears ballooned earlier this year when the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow indicator predicted a 1.5% contraction for the first quarter of the year, while the actual fall was softer at 0.5%.

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