The Polls Were Way Off. Am I Supposed To Believe GA Senate Runoff Polls Will Be Any Better? Hard Pass.

The Polls Were Way Off. Am I Supposed To Believe GA Senate Runoff Polls Will Be Any Better? Hard Pass.


For the next two months, the state of Georgia will be at the center of the political universe. Two runoff elections will decide which political party controls the Senate, and if the Democratic Party will have nearly unbridled power until the 2022 mid-terms.

In addition to the avalanche of money that will be poured into these Senate races, and the politicians who will travel to Georgia to stump from their preferred candidates, there will also be polling data purporting to show where the races stand.

For many years, polling has been a fairly reliable way to assess political races. This was, of course, upended in 2016 when the polls were shown to be critically mistaken. Despite the industry having two years to assess and correct any flaws in their methodology, the polls failed yet again in 2018—this time in a hotly contested gubernatorial election.

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Before the 2018 election for Florida governor, the average of polls, according to RealClearPolitics, had

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