Republicans are confident President Trump can once again beat expectations and outperform his poll numbers in the battleground states. A second term hinges on whether they are correct.
The public polling in the states most critical to Trump’s reelection chances has been a mixed bag. He is on track to erase Joe Biden’s lead in Florida, though a massive Michael Bloomberg expenditure on behalf of the Democratic nominee looms there, and in North Carolina. But he is still behind by an average of 4 to 7 points in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, all states he carried in 2016.
Even here, there is variability. Some recent polls in Pennsylvania have Trump behind only 2 to 4 points, but NBC News/Marist College has him down 9 points and Quinnipiac by 8. Rasmussen has the race tied. Veteran Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas said it is important to watch Trump’s vote share in these polls as much as the