The Only Pollster Showing Trump Winning Just Blew a Hole in the Rest of the Polling Industry

The Only Pollster Showing Trump Winning Just Blew a Hole in the Rest of the Polling Industry


Even if you’re the poll-watching type, there’s a pretty good chance you’ve never heard of the Democracy Institute.

The Anglo-American think-tank, which is associated with the libertarian Cato Institute, was one of the only pollsters to correctly predict two seismic political events. As Jim Rossi at Forbes pointed out, “[t]he Democracy Institute is a relative newcomer to political polling – but it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s historic 2016 upset.”

Yet, the group’s 2020 presidential polls aren’t included in either of the two major polling average indices, RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight.

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There’s no denying the Democracy Institute’s polling represents an outlier — but there are plenty of outliers within both indices, outliers which can’t lay claim to predicting either Brexit or the 2016 election. The major difference seems to be that its polling has consistently shown President Donald Trump ahead of Democratic nominee Joe Biden, both nationally and in major battleground states.

In Forbes’ words, it’s the “only” poll that “shows

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