Real or fake? How to interpret Trump's polling deficit

Real or fake? How to interpret Trump's polling deficit


Every day seems to bring more bad polling news for President Trump. From internal Democratic polls showing Joe Biden in a strong position in places such as Missouri to major national media polls with eye-popping results in places such as Texas, even the president’s allies have become more vocal about his need to change strategy in the face of overwhelmingly negative data.

Tough numbers for Trump are not entirely new, though they represent a sizable slide from his position pre-coronavirus. Despite poll after poll showing Trump trailing by enormous margins in critical states, the public still seems reluctant to predict that Biden will be the winner. Trump voters, in particular, are likely to think their candidate will again beat the odds, shock the world, and rally an unpolled coalition to victory in November.

After the surprise of 2016’s Trump victory, it is understandable to be skeptical of the growing consensus that Trump is cruising toward a massive

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