Bitcoin (BTC) is facing rejection near $50,000, indicating that bears are not ready to give up without a fight. Many analysts expect Bitcoin to soar in the last quarter of the year and stock-to-flow model creator PlanB says the “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin in October is $63,000 and $98,000 by November.
PlanB is not alone in his bullish projection. Using Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) indicator during the four-year cycle, Twitter commentator TechDev suggests that the second leg of the 2021 bull run may just be getting started. The trader expects Bitcoin’s cycle top to be around $200,000.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
While historical projections may be pointing for a rally in the last quarter, the rise may not be linear. The United States equity market’s volatility in October is 36% higher than the average for the remaining 11 months, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. Due to Bitcoin’s high correlation with the S&P 500, traders may be in for a roller coaster ride in October.
Could Bitcoin follow its historical precedence and rally to the upside? And will altcoins join in on the party? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The bulls pushed Bitcoin above the overhead resistance at $48,843.20 on Oct. 3 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick indicates that bears are defending the level aggressively. The price has been trading between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($46,667) and $48,843.20 for the past two days.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If bulls drive and sustain the price above the overhead resistance, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $50,000 and later to $52,920.
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($45,478) has turned up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Contrary to this assumption, if bears pull the price below the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. A bounce off this support will be a positive sign and the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle.
The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then drop to the 100-day SMA ($41,935).
The bulls pushed Ether (ETH) above the downtrend line and the moving averages on Oct. 1, but the bears have not thrown in the towel yet. The sellers are attempting