The record-long U.S. government shutdown appears to be in its final stretch, with prediction markets signaling overwhelming confidence that a deal will clear Congress within days.
On Polymarket, traders now assign a 96% probability that the government reopens between November 12 and 15, aligning with the expected House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.
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Over on Kalshi, contracts tied to the duration of the shutdown have seen similar momentum, with traders pricing in an end within the next 72 hours as confidence surged following the Senate’s 60–40 vote to fund the government through January 30.
The jump in odds followed a decisive shift in Washington over the weekend.
Seven Senate Democrats broke ranks to join Republicans in advancing a
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