Pollsters Failed to Detect Trump Support from Educated Whites

Pollsters Failed to Detect Trump Support from Educated Whites


The biggest group of “shy Trump voters” of the 2020 election — voters who concealed their intention from pollsters — was educated white voters working in white-collar jobs, according to a post-election analysis conducted by political scientist Eric Kaufman.

In 2016, it was Trump’s support in the rust belt, predominantly from white voters without college degrees, that was underestimated. This was particularly true due to the lack of polling in states like Michigan and Wisconsin that flipped for Trump in that election after decades as deep-blue Democrat states.

This time, however, it was white voters with college degrees that the polls failed to detect.

Via Unherd:

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…the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC

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