‘Investors Are Running out of Havens’ — Erratic Behavior in US Bond Markets Points to Deep Recession, Elevated Sovereign Risk

‘Investors Are Running out of Havens’ — Erratic Behavior in US Bond Markets Points to Deep Recession, Elevated Sovereign Risk


Yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries have been erratic this year and this week, the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 3.5% for the first time in a decade. Following the Fed’s 75bps (basis points) rate hike, 10-year notes reached 3.642% and two-year Treasury notes jumped to a 15-year high at 4.090%. The curve between the two- and 10-year notes indicates the chances of a deep U.S. recession have grown stronger, and recent reports say bond traders have been “confronted with the wildest volatility of their careers.”

2 Quarters of Negative GDP, Red-Hot Inflation, and Extremely Volatile T-Notes

At the end of July, after the second consecutive quarter of negative gross domestic product (GDP), a number of economists and market strategists stressed that the U.S. is in a

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