Forecasting Bitcoin price using quantitative models, Part 3

Forecasting Bitcoin price using quantitative models, Part 3


This is Part Three of a multipart series that aims to answer the following question: What is the “fundamental value” of Bitcoin? Part One is about the value of scarcity, Part Two — the market moves in bubbles, Part Three — the rate of adoption, and Part Four — the hash rate and the estimated price of Bitcoin.

The rate of adoption

If more and more people desire a certain good, and the same amount of units are in circulation, the price will obviously have a tendency to rise. It’s the supply-and-demand rule that governs any market in the world.

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If one year, a hailstorm destroys the tomato crop and there are fewer edible tomatoes than expected, it makes sense for the price of tomatoes on the market to rise, considering that the demand has remained the same. However, imagine for a moment that suddenly, people want to buy tomatoes much more than in previous years. The demand goes up and the

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