When it comes to political polling, weight matters.
The pollsters who badly missed the national vote, giving Joseph R. Biden a double-digit lead in the final week, are the ones who generally did not “weight” the sample’s voters or underestimated Republican turnout, an examination by The Washington Times shows.
Instead, some firms went with how the surveyed voters identified themselves by party with no adjustment, or “weight,” based on previous elections. In 2016, Republicans accounted for 33% of the vote. But some 2020 polls predicted less than 30%. The actual 2020 GOP turnout: 36%.
Republicans are in open revolt against news media and university pollsters, saying 2020 inaccuracies hurt their voter turnout and prompted constant negative commentary by a national press obsessed with polls.
“After this election, I think the polling industry needs to take a hard look at what it does,” reelected Sen. Susan Collins, Maine Republican, told Fox News.
All polls had showed her losing.