With the exception of Bill Clinton’s 1996 victory in the state, Arizona has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1952. Mitt Romney won the state in 2012 by 9.5 percent, and Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 3.5 points in 2016.
For much of 2020, however, the majority of polls have shown Democratic nominee Joe Biden outperforming the president, often by a wide margin. This has led many political observers to conclude that the Grand Canyon State might be turning blue. At the very least, Arizona is now considered to be a battleground state.
A glance at the Real Clear Politics’ data summary shows that although Biden’s edge has fluctuated from an average of 5.7 percent to 2 percent, he has maintained a steady lead throughout the year.
But recent polls and a surprising observation about the direction of the former vice president’s strength in the state suggest the dynamics of this race may be changing.