A high-turnout election could hand Florida to former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
The survey found that an election that sees a historically high number of voters gives Biden, the Democratic nominee, a significant advantage over President Trump in the Sunshine State. According to Monmouth’s model, a high-turnout election gives Biden 50% support among likely voters compared with Trump’s 45%. Those numbers are identical to who all registered voters support in Florida as well.
Under a low-turnout model, the race narrows slightly, with Biden earning 49% support compared with Trump’s 46%.
“Biden’s current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton’s margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida’s Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better