An Iran containment strategy: Managing the post-conflict threat 

Since its creation some 47 years ago, the Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resourcefulness and dedication to its goals of regional hegemony and proliferation of Islamic radicalism. As a result, the extent of Iranian military recovery from the attacks in June 2025 should not have been surprising. Clearly, if the regime remains in control in Tehran, it will not relent and will continue to represent a danger to the West.

Specifically, should the present conflict leave the regime with the resources to do so, it will seek to recover quickly and even expand its capabilities, including further developing its nuclear program. The key to Iranian recovery is crude oil sales, constituting some $8 billion in 2025. Even if there were effective sanctions, these exports enable barter deals, particularly with Chinese companies, including those producing military electronics and other equipment. 

If the conflict does not result in near-term regime change, the