Alter Russia’s escalation calculus against NATO

In a rare escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO forces engaged in a direct defense of allied airspace overnight Tuesday-Wednesday. The incident occurred when approximately 19 Russian-controlled drones breached Polish airspace, some entering from Belarus. NATO fighter jets downed a number of the drones.

This is a big deal. Some of the drones penetrated deep into Poland, scattering debris, damaging homes, and forcing the temporary closure of four airports. Warsaw invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty to initiate consultations with allies. But NATO’s performance here is very much under scrutiny. Russian forces launch hundreds of drones daily against Ukraine, with Kyiv showing an apparently far better competency than NATO in defending itself.

But the drones are only the tip of the iceberg. Last week, Russia

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